U.S. road deaths up 7%

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sussex2
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Re: U.S. road deaths up 7%

Postby sussex2 » Sun Aug 07, 2016 8:40 am

I've not done it for a while but for quite a few years I drove regularly up and down the I-95 and mostly in Florida.
The state of the driving was, and probably still is, absolutely appalling. The state of many of the vehicles on the road little better.
Aside from that I find/found the general attitude to pedestrians to be exemplary and light years ahead of the UK.

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jont-
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Location: Flatlands

Re: U.S. road deaths up 7%

Postby jont- » Sun Aug 07, 2016 10:01 am

sussex2 wrote:Aside from that I find/found the general attitude to pedestrians to be exemplary and light years ahead of the UK.

I guess they now have novelty value over there :lol:

sussex2
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Re: U.S. road deaths up 7%

Postby sussex2 » Mon Aug 08, 2016 7:55 am

jont- wrote:
sussex2 wrote:Aside from that I find/found the general attitude to pedestrians to be exemplary and light years ahead of the UK.

I guess they now have novelty value over there :lol:


Many of the older cities are laid out pretty much the same as European ones...in the country you'd be pushed to find a footpath.

chriskay
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Re: U.S. road deaths up 7%

Postby chriskay » Mon Aug 08, 2016 10:49 am

sussex2 wrote:Aside from that I find/found the general attitude to pedestrians to be exemplary and light years ahead of the UK.


I'm reminded of the time, years ago in San Francisco, there's a junction where Columbus Ave. Stockton St. and Green St. meet. There are traffic lights, but no pedestrian lights. I asked a cop how I knew when it was safe to cross; he said "Sir, the minute you step into the road, you have priority".
Carpe diem

sussex2
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Re: U.S. road deaths up 7%

Postby sussex2 » Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:17 am

chriskay wrote:
sussex2 wrote:Aside from that I find/found the general attitude to pedestrians to be exemplary and light years ahead of the UK.


I'm reminded of the time, years ago in San Francisco, there's a junction where Columbus Ave. Stockton St. and Green St. meet. There are traffic lights, but no pedestrian lights. I asked a cop how I knew when it was safe to cross; he said "Sir, the minute you step into the road, you have priority".


I always warn the U.S. part of my family not to expect the same courtesy here :)

Rolyan
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Re: U.S. road deaths up 7%

Postby Rolyan » Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:47 am

martine wrote:http://www.nhtsa.gov/About+NHTSA/Press+Releases/nhtsa-2015-traffic-deaths-up-07012016

Our seems to have plateaued in recent years.

What's to be done?

We could start by getting the full data.

Who says there's a problem? This increase may be part of the normal variation expected in a downward trend.

I may have missed the graphs and/or analysis, but this appears rather ill informed and sensationalist.

martine
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Re: U.S. road deaths up 7%

Postby martine » Mon Aug 08, 2016 3:40 pm

Rolyan wrote:
martine wrote:http://www.nhtsa.gov/About+NHTSA/Press+Releases/nhtsa-2015-traffic-deaths-up-07012016

Our seems to have plateaued in recent years.

What's to be done?

We could start by getting the full data.

Who says there's a problem? This increase may be part of the normal variation expected in a downward trend.

I may have missed the graphs and/or analysis, but this appears rather ill informed and sensationalist.

Yes the full analysis will be interesting but it does say in the article that only 3.5% of the total 7.7% increase can be explained by the US economic recovery (and hence increased mileage). I'm not a statistician but I'm pretty sure 4.2% rise in such a large number (32,675) is beyond normal variance.
https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/812269
Martin - Bristol IAM: IMI National Observer and Group Secretary, DSA: ADI, Fleet, RoSPA (Dip)

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GTR1400MAN
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Re: U.S. road deaths up 7%

Postby GTR1400MAN » Mon Aug 08, 2016 3:56 pm

Yeah, I know, but, it can't keep going down forever, whatever the politicians will say :twisted:
Mike Roberts

Silk
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Re: U.S. road deaths up 7%

Postby Silk » Mon Aug 08, 2016 8:34 pm

martine wrote:
Rolyan wrote:
martine wrote:http://www.nhtsa.gov/About+NHTSA/Press+Releases/nhtsa-2015-traffic-deaths-up-07012016

Our seems to have plateaued in recent years.

What's to be done?

We could start by getting the full data.

Who says there's a problem? This increase may be part of the normal variation expected in a downward trend.

I may have missed the graphs and/or analysis, but this appears rather ill informed and sensationalist.

Yes the full analysis will be interesting but it does say in the article that only 3.5% of the total 7.7% increase can be explained by the US economic recovery (and hence increased mileage). I'm not a statistician but I'm pretty sure 4.2% rise in such a large number (32,675) is beyond normal variance.
https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/812269


I blame Pokémon Go.

Rolyan
Posts: 587
Joined: Fri Apr 29, 2016 5:45 pm

Re: U.S. road deaths up 7%

Postby Rolyan » Tue Aug 09, 2016 11:48 am

martine wrote:
Rolyan wrote:
martine wrote:http://www.nhtsa.gov/About+NHTSA/Press+Releases/nhtsa-2015-traffic-deaths-up-07012016

Our seems to have plateaued in recent years.

What's to be done?

We could start by getting the full data.

Who says there's a problem? This increase may be part of the normal variation expected in a downward trend.

I may have missed the graphs and/or analysis, but this appears rather ill informed and sensationalist.

Yes the full analysis will be interesting but it does say in the article that only 3.5% of the total 7.7% increase can be explained by the US economic recovery (and hence increased mileage). I'm not a statistician but I'm pretty sure 4.2% rise in such a large number (32,675) is beyond normal variance.
https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/812269

I hear where you're coming from, but the problem is that we simply don't know what the normal variance is. So we cant judge (believe/think/guess) that this increase is above it (or below it).

In one of the training courses, I show three graphs reflecting the share price of genuine companies, measured in the last 12 months. I ask attendees to think about their own approach to risk, and decide which, if any, of the three companies they would invest in. Graph one shows a consistent large increase but with an occasional large drop, two is fairly flat but a very small increase and three is a huge continuous drop. After discussions, its revealed that they are all the same organisation and more importantly, all the same graph.

There are lots of other examples, but I've seen so many poor uses of data in regard to road safety that I don't trust anything reported without seeing the data and the analysis that goes with it. The time period, context, collection method and analysis all affect the results.

Please note: I'm not suggestion that this data is 'normal' or otherwise, I'm simply saying that we can't know from the evidence provided.


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