EU - where did it go wrong?

[sussex2]

Greece has always needed propping up and probably always will.
There are areas of the UK, though not states, that are in exactly the same position.
Strangely some of them voted to bite the hand that has been feeding.
Nowt as queer as folk.

[ancient]

For some people, it isn't "the economy stupid", there are in fact other values in life.


ETA, just in case: No, I'm not calling anyone here stupid, that is a reference to a 1992 campaign slogan in US, which became rather famous (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/It's_the_economy,_stupid).

[Rolyan]

I think it would be a mistake to assume that individuals were wholly for staying in the European Union, or wholly for leaving it. Nearly everyone I've discussed this with has been seen good and bad points for staying, good and bad points for leaving, then made their decision by weighing them up.

100% agreed. The quicker everyone realises that, the quicker we can start working together to move forward.

[Gareth]

some of them voted to bite the hand that has been feeding.

I'd be interested to know what proportion of wealth redistribution in the UK is caused by internal versus external mechanisms. My initial feeling is that the amount the UK has sent to the EU and which is then returned to the poorer areas is very small compared to the amount which is sent directly.

According to https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/, the EU returns £4.5 billion to the UK.

For just the Northern Ireland economy: "In total, the British government subvention totals £5,000m, or 20% of Northern Ireland's economic output." which on its own appears to be greater than the amount coming back from the EU, not taking into account block grants to Scotland and Wales, (although it's possible I've misunderstood the situation).

[Rolyan]

Greece has always needed propping up and probably always will.
There are areas of the UK, though not states, that are in exactly the same position.
Strangely some of them voted to bite the hand that has been feeding.
Nowt as queer as folk.

Yeah. It's almost as if they've considered a bigger picture and are capable of looking at issues beyond subsidies.

[sussex2]

some of them voted to bite the hand that has been feeding.

I'd be interested to know what proportion of wealth redistribution in the UK is caused by internal versus external mechanisms. My initial feeling is that the amount the UK has sent to the EU and which is then returned to the poorer areas is very small compared to the amount which is sent directly.

According to https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/, the EU returns £4.5 billion to the UK.

For just the Northern Ireland economy: "In total, the British government subvention totals £5,000m, or 20% of Northern Ireland's economic output." which on its own appears to be greater than the amount coming back from the EU, not taking into account block grants to Scotland and Wales, (although it's possible I've misunderstood the situation).

In the future the money that was given to these areas will have to come from somewhere.
We have already spent propping up the economy as much as we have sent to the EU (of which we are a fair and equal part) in the last 15 years.
There will be a hole in our finances; well perhaps not a hole and more like an open cast mine when this lot is finished.
I wonder how this money will be made up? What cuts will be made and how many years of .....wait for it....austerity (heard that one before?) will follow as a result.
As an example the Cornwall which benefited to the tune of at least 60 million a year in EU grants has already asked the UK government to cover this; yet this county voted to leave the union!
I wonder where they think this money will come from? How can it be replaced?
Can we expect hand outs (read expensive loans as our credit rating tumbles) from perhaps the U.S. which has seen their 401 pension plans reduced by billions because of our actions.
No we can't
It is as plain as the nose on Gerard Depardieus face to me; we have got ourselves into the slurry pit and no amount of swimming is going to get us out in the near, or far, future.
The only thing to do now is, eating humble pie on the way, go back to the EU and organise some sort of deal; accept whatever scraps they are willing to throw our way.
That's it, that's the future for whatever will be left of this country.
It may sound pessimistic but in reality it is pessimistic and we started this on a whim and with no plan as to what to do - there's a price for that.

[Rolyan]

some of them voted to bite the hand that has been feeding.

I'd be interested to know what proportion of wealth redistribution in the UK is caused by internal versus external mechanisms. My initial feeling is that the amount the UK has sent to the EU and which is then returned to the poorer areas is very small compared to the amount which is sent directly.

According to https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/, the EU returns £4.5 billion to the UK.

For just the Northern Ireland economy: "In total, the British government subvention totals £5,000m, or 20% of Northern Ireland's economic output." which on its own appears to be greater than the amount coming back from the EU, not taking into account block grants to Scotland and Wales, (although it's possible I've misunderstood the situation).

In the future the money that was given to these areas will have to come from somewhere.
We have already spent propping up the economy as much as we have sent to the EU (of which we are a fair and equal part) in the last 15 years.
There will be a hole in our finances; well perhaps not a hole and more like an open cast mine when this lot is finished.
I wonder how this money will be made up? What cuts will be made and how many years of .....wait for it....austerity (heard that one before?) will follow as a result.
As an example the Cornwall which benefited to the tune of at least 60 million a year in EU grants has already asked the UK government to cover this; yet this county voted to leave the union!
I wonder where they think this money will come from? How can it be replaced?
Can we expect hand outs (read expensive loans as our credit rating tumbles) from perhaps the U.S. which has seen their 401 pension plans reduced by billions because of our actions.
No we can't
It is as plain as the nose on Gerard Depardieus face to me; we have got ourselves into the slurry pit and no amount of swimming is going to get us out in the near, or far, future.
The only thing to do now is, eating humble pie on the way, go back to the EU and organise some sort of deal; accept whatever scraps they are willing to throw our way.
That's it, that's the future for whatever will be left of this country.
It may sound pessimistic but in reality it is pessimistic and we started this on a whim and with no plan as to what to do - there's a price for that.

You may not have had a plan as you wanted to stay; but others certainly did have a plan. Don't confuse your dislike of the result with the knowledge and actions of others who disagreed with your desire to stay.

Re the money: the UK's membership fee in to the EU is £18 billion. We have a rebate of £5 billion, so it costs us £13 billion every year. Of that, we get back £4 billion in subsidies. That leaves a net contribution of nearly £9 billion per year.

We can now decide as a nation how to spend that money (the total amount, £13 billion). Im my opinion, some of that money could and should go to poorer communities. Other may agree or disagree. But when the political party in power does not spend the money as you see fit, everyone can get off their fat lazy arses* and vote to remove them. Which you cant do with the EU.

So there you go. Thats where the money is coming from.

* I'm using the same emotive language to describe all the non voters in general elections as some of the remainers have been using to describe those who want to control immigration. You know the usual idiotic rubbish, like the absolute nonsense I heard the other day by a remainer who said "all those against immigration are sat at home getting benefits and should get off their fat lazy arses and get a job". Pathetic nonsense I know, uttered by a moron, but if he's reading this I wanted him to understand the sentiments, put at a level he could cope with.


P.S. He's not actually a member of ADHub obviously.

[sussex2]

That the Leave brigade did not have a plan is obvious by the events of the last couple of days. It was also admitted by every senior member of the group.
A wise Leave campaign would have ensured themselves that there was enough in the bank before even attempting the move.
A thoughtful Bank of England had a plan, to spend saved money. The money will need to be made up in the future and this can only be done in a few ways.
By taxation (unpopular) by borrowing (expensive with a duff credit rating) or by more and more cuts. It will be a sad fact of life (IMO) that all of these things will need to be done.
The money spent so far equals our payments into a mutually beneficial club over the last 15 years - probably more as the hours and days tick away.
Reality will come knocking at the door when the euphoria dies away.

[akirk]

I think it will be a while before we know whether there was / wasn't a plan - and how detailed / complete it might have been...
Let us not forget that politics and media hysteria both get in the way of accurate knowledge - what is clear is that the market response is a lot better than many predicted - partly due to preparedness by the Bank of England, and many big corporations - who have had plans for this ready for quite a while now...

Aston Martin (predominantly owned by foreign money including the recent Invest Industrial fund investment which is Italian based and pan-European) has confirmed since the vote that they will go ahead with the Wales based factory

Boeing confirmed a while back that they would move their HQ here regardless of vote outcome

The FTSE 100 hasn't changed much - yes there was a sharp drop on Friday - but primarily correcting the false beliefs from the previous week when it was believed that the vote would be to remain - causing growth in the index... It closed up on Friady above its value a week previously

The FTSE 250 is down a bit, and is a more accurate reflection of UK companies - however it is not all that dramatic, and will undoubtedly correct against the real / asset / market cap values of the businesses

The pound is down sharply against the dollar - yet it is still higher than it was in February

i.e. - we can't just take one side of a discussion - we have to see figures in context, not see them being used artificially to demonstrate the point the commentator wants made! We need to remove the noise from the figures - esp. the artificial changes due to speculators who are now correcting their positions - that alone will disrupt the market - but has nothing to do with the real value of businesses underneath - with anything in the financial market you have to try and separate substance and noise - and at the moment there is a lot more noise than usual, causing some dramatic looking graphs (especially when viewed over a week rather than the normal month / 6 month / yearly trends...) - that doesn't mean that they present an accurate position...

Alasdair

[sussex2]

I'd have thought that this indicates there was not much of a plan, or if there was, very little forethought:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/busin ... 05196.html