EU - where did it go wrong?

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sussex2
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Re: EU - where did it go wrong?

Postby sussex2 » Mon Jun 27, 2016 12:46 pm

akirk wrote:I think it will be a while before we know whether there was / wasn't a plan - and how detailed / complete it might have been...
Let us not forget that politics and media hysteria both get in the way of accurate knowledge - what is clear is that the market response is a lot better than many predicted - partly due to preparedness by the Bank of England, and many big corporations - who have had plans for this ready for quite a while now...

Aston Martin (predominantly owned by foreign money including the recent Invest Industrial fund investment which is Italian based and pan-European) has confirmed since the vote that they will go ahead with the Wales based factory

Boeing confirmed a while back that they would move their HQ here regardless of vote outcome

The FTSE 100 hasn't changed much - yes there was a sharp drop on Friday - but primarily correcting the false beliefs from the previous week when it was believed that the vote would be to remain - causing growth in the index... It closed up on Friady above its value a week previously

The FTSE 250 is down a bit, and is a more accurate reflection of UK companies - however it is not all that dramatic, and will undoubtedly correct against the real / asset / market cap values of the businesses

The pound is down sharply against the dollar - yet it is still higher than it was in February

i.e. - we can't just take one side of a discussion - we have to see figures in context, not see them being used artificially to demonstrate the point the commentator wants made! We need to remove the noise from the figures - esp. the artificial changes due to speculators who are now correcting their positions - that alone will disrupt the market - but has nothing to do with the real value of businesses underneath - with anything in the financial market you have to try and separate substance and noise - and at the moment there is a lot more noise than usual, causing some dramatic looking graphs (especially when viewed over a week rather than the normal month / 6 month / yearly trends...) - that doesn't mean that they present an accurate position...

I take your points but this whole things started out wrong. It was a knee jerk reaction and they rarely end up well.
What is the old military saying...'Piss poor preparation makes for piss poor performance....something along those lines.

Perhaps if we had a proper constitution for the country and the way these things (referendums) should be handled were written into it (hand hint for the future) then we would have all known what to expect, from the outset.

Alasdair

Gareth
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Re: EU - where did it go wrong?

Postby Gareth » Mon Jun 27, 2016 12:50 pm

sussex2 wrote:In the future the money that was given to these areas will have to come from somewhere.

As has already been mentioned, part of the UK contribution to the EU is where the money comes from. The main difference, post-exit, will be that the UK government will choose how that money is spent, instead of the EU bureaucrats.
there is only the road, nothing but the road ...

sussex2
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Re: EU - where did it go wrong?

Postby sussex2 » Mon Jun 27, 2016 12:58 pm

Gareth wrote:
sussex2 wrote:In the future the money that was given to these areas will have to come from somewhere.

As has already been mentioned, part of the UK contribution to the EU is where the money comes from. The main difference, post-exit, will be that the UK government will choose how that money is spent, instead of the EU bureaucrats.


Cornwall I think is asking for some assurance that this will happen.
We are going to have to make up the amount we are spending propping up the economy at present, and this will have to come from somewhere.
There is also the possibility of a future government not looking favourably on areas that voted in certain way.
It's a complicated things we've got ourselves involved in and as the man said on the BBC when the result was announced 'It's a seismic change'.
There are going to be few if any quick answers.

Rolyan
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Re: EU - where did it go wrong?

Postby Rolyan » Mon Jun 27, 2016 1:14 pm

Gareth wrote:
sussex2 wrote:In the future the money that was given to these areas will have to come from somewhere.

As has already been mentioned, part of the UK contribution to the EU is where the money comes from. The main difference, post-exit, will be that the UK government will choose how that money is spent, instead of the EU bureaucrats.

Exactly. £9 billion, plus a further £4 billion that is currently given back in dedicated subsidies. Total £13 billion. More than enough for Cornwall.

Alisdaire is correct about how the markets are responding. There are many who are moaning about it, based only on what they've read. Its not surprising that those that manipulated the markets, and bet on a rise in sterling, stocks etc, may be disappointed at losing out. But they are now buying in low, and will soon be happy again.

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akirk
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Re: EU - where did it go wrong?

Postby akirk » Mon Jun 27, 2016 1:28 pm

There is "an orderliness" in the Brexit market reaction, says Lew

US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew has told CNBC that the global market turbulence following Britain's vote to leave the EU doesn't look like it has the makings of another financial crisis. Mr Lew also said he is working closely with London, Brussels and other partners to ensure continued economic stability, security and prosperity.


The reality is that I don't see the kind of reactions we had with the recession / and other substantial single day changes to the markets - and lets not forget that those corrected over time - as will this...

We should also remember that there are lots of big egos and commercial interests manipulating the markets - and they are using this as an excuse - it would be too simplistic to merely say that this is a definitive response to the vote...

Alasdair

irf520
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Re: EU - where did it go wrong?

Postby irf520 » Mon Jun 27, 2016 2:20 pm

And the mask drops ...

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/ ... ate-Brexit

I guess they're going for broke now before the whole thing unravels like a cheap jumper.

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Strangely Brown
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Re: EU - where did it go wrong?

Postby Strangely Brown » Mon Jun 27, 2016 3:08 pm

irf520 wrote:And the mask drops ...

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/ ... ate-Brexit

I guess they're going for broke now before the whole thing unravels like a cheap jumper.


It was never a mask; that has been the intention all along and plain to see for anyone that looked behind curtain.

ancient
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Re: EU - where did it go wrong?

Postby ancient » Mon Jun 27, 2016 3:08 pm

sussex2 wrote:
Gareth wrote:
sussex2 wrote:In the future the money that was given to these areas will have to come from somewhere.

As has already been mentioned, part of the UK contribution to the EU is where the money comes from. The main difference, post-exit, will be that the UK government will choose how that money is spent, instead of the EU bureaucrats.


Cornwall I think is asking for some assurance that this will happen.

Assurance that the priorities of a UK government are the same as the priorities of Brussels bureaucrats? :lol:
sussex2 wrote:We are going to have to make up the amount we are spending propping up the economy at present, and this will have to come from somewhere.
There is also the possibility of a future government not looking favourably on areas that voted in certain way.

There is indeed: That is due to that uncertain method of making decisions which is commonly termed 'Democracy'.
sussex2 wrote:It's a complicated things we've got ourselves involved in and as the man said on the BBC when the result was announced 'It's a seismic change'.
There are going to be few if any quick answers.
Very true, which is why the search for quick answers in the tea-leaves of daily market changes is as flawed a method of predicting the future as star gazing.

mainbeam
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Re: EU - where did it go wrong?

Postby mainbeam » Mon Jun 27, 2016 4:58 pm

Gareth wrote:
sussex2 wrote:In the future the money that was given to these areas will have to come from somewhere.

As has already been mentioned, part of the UK contribution to the EU is where the money comes from. The main difference, post-exit, will be that the UK government will choose how that money is spent, instead of the EU bureaucrats.


The UK government doesn't choose how much interest it pays on its debt and it is likely that for some time the costs to the economy of deciding to leave will outweigh the potential savings from not having to make the contribution.http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-e ... m-36626201

To add insult to injury until we negotiate our exit we will continue to make the contribution. In effect we will be paying more to leave than to stay.

sussex2
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Re: EU - where did it go wrong?

Postby sussex2 » Mon Jun 27, 2016 5:03 pm

ancient wrote:
sussex2 wrote:
Gareth wrote:
sussex2 wrote:In the future the money that was given to these areas will have to come from somewhere.

As has already been mentioned, part of the UK contribution to the EU is where the money comes from. The main difference, post-exit, will be that the UK government will choose how that money is spent, instead of the EU bureaucrats.


Cornwall I think is asking for some assurance that this will happen.

Assurance that the priorities of a UK government are the same as the priorities of Brussels bureaucrats? :lol:
sussex2 wrote:We are going to have to make up the amount we are spending propping up the economy at present, and this will have to come from somewhere.
There is also the possibility of a future government not looking favourably on areas that voted in certain way.

There is indeed: That is due to that uncertain method of making decisions which is commonly termed 'Democracy'.
sussex2 wrote:It's a complicated things we've got ourselves involved in and as the man said on the BBC when the result was announced 'It's a seismic change'.
There are going to be few if any quick answers.
Very true, which is why the search for quick answers in the tea-leaves of daily market changes is as flawed a method of predicting the future as star gazing.


Democracy is a strange thing but I believe it should have a solid base of reason and common sense; what we are facing now was not and cannot fall within the terms of the words as far as I am concerned.
The vote was born from the panicked decision of a weak man; that is never, not ever, going to be the way one of the top ten countries in the world should conduct itself.
The result of this will be division which will last for generations, and if it is forgotten at all all it will only be for the sake of keeping a temporary peace.
I've seen it in Spain where today, 80 years after the Civil War ended, there are people who will not talk to one another. It is responsible for the virtual silence you get in many public places such as trains and aircraft; you don't open the conversation because you never know where it is going to go.
We haven't had a civil war but we are, and nobody should be having any doubt, in the early stages of the civil version of that.


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