The EU - Leave or Remain?

[StressedDave]

You forgot the gap year...

[sussex2]

I've heard Lidl are doing last years fashion black shirts at a bargain price. It'll save commissioning Hugo Boss and they fade less in the sun than purple.
Or, so I am reliably informed.

[Silk]

We've voted to leave. 52% to 48%.

I hope you're all fucking happy.

Surprisingly enough, I voted remain.

[Mr Cholmondeley-Warner]

Surprisingly enough, I voted remain.

Hello

I surprised myself in the same "I suppose I should" sort of way. I can't feel any huge sense of impending doom incurred by the result though.

[StressedDave]

You should hear some of my overly intellectual or London-based friends then. They're either railing against the idiots who voted leave or doomsaying how badly off Insanity's generation are going to be once it all pans out - probably/possibly.

[Mr Cholmondeley-Warner]

Yes, unfortunately for them we've been working to extend the vote to all adults rather than just those rich enough (or who consider themselves educated enough, in the absence of large amounts of land) since 1832, so now they have to put up with that fact. Their patronising attitude was probably largely to blame for the unexpected nature of the result, but of course they will continue to moan about "racism" etc. as it's an easier peg to hang their hats on.

[TheInsanity1234]

very interesting

[hir]

...

You are of course aware that, given that the vast majority of politicians still back Remain and will be negotiating a deal rather similar to what we already have

Very unlikely, I'm afraid to say.

Brussels is not going to give the UK (or, perhaps by then it'll be just England & Wales) an easy ride in any negotiations. Talk of German car makers putting pressure on Brussels to go easy on us and let us have German cars at £zero tariff rates is cloud cuckoo land. If the UK is allowed by Brussels to be seen to cherry-pick the best bits, (ie. the bits that the UK considers to be the best bits), then there'll be a queue of other potential exitee countries lining up to do exactly the same thing. Neither Germany nor France will tolerate that situation. Leaders across Europe would be looking nervously over their shoulders at their own increasingly influential Eurosceptic political rivals so they're not going to be feeling particularly benevolent towards the UK when it comes to trade negotiations. All twenty-seven members must ratify any trade agreement between the EU and the UK; it only needs one member state to say "no" to a specific aspect of the draft agreement for it to be excluded. No, I'm afraid we now enter the cold reality of extricating the UK from the EU and negotiating the best deal we can. It will be painful. The EU will give us a really tough time. In addition, Brussels has an army of trade negotiators who have been negotiating with other nations for decades - the UK hasn't negotiated a trade deal for nearly 45 years. Brussels will be no push-over when it comes to Brexit trade negotiations I'm afraid.

I'd be utterly amazed if the right of free movement is going to be curtailed significantly...

Free movement would be the price we'd have to pay for free access to the EU free market. But, that arrangement will come with a significant UK contribution to the EU budget attached to it. The Norwegian model in fact. This will be the worst of all outcomes.

If we don't want, or need, access to the free market then, and only then, will we be able to choose to opt out of free movement.

We are living in interesting times

[akirk]

very interesting

That has been / was discussed widely well before the vote - the common consensus is that it was a political sound bite designed to sound better than the reality which is c. £170m - £190m not £350m a week (still though c. £8-10 billion a year).

In political terms it is seen as okay / a soundbite because it accurately reflects the amount of money pushed from the UK to the EU
In normal terms it is considered a lie / misleading because it is not the full picture - i.e. it ignores the rebates back the other way... It would have been far more sensible to have been accurate about it - however that is not to deny that there is still a nice pot of money difference on paper...

however economics are far more complex than that and the reality will be that in leaving the EU the calculations will start with that figure (the more accurate c. £9billion) and then start to work out all the other factors that effect it - which will mean a greater or lesser benefit to the country...

Alasdair

[TheInsanity1234]

very interesting

That has been / was discussed widely well before the vote - the common consensus is that it was a political sound bite designed to sound better than the reality which is c. £170m - £190m not £350m a week (still though c. £8-10 billion a year).

In political terms it is seen as okay / a soundbite because it accurately reflects the amount of money pushed from the UK to the EU
In normal terms it is considered a lie / misleading because it is not the full picture - i.e. it ignores the rebates back the other way... It would have been far more sensible to have been accurate about it - however that is not to deny that there is still a nice pot of money difference on paper...

however economics are far more complex than that and the reality will be that in leaving the EU the calculations will start with that figure (the more accurate c. £9billion) and then start to work out all the other factors that effect it - which will mean a greater or lesser benefit to the country...

Alasdair

Potentially lesser benefit, simply because we've now lost all of the advantages of the EU membership, but we're going to be stuck with all the cons.

Oh, and also, since the value of the pound has plummeted, I suspect we'll have to pay considerably more than £350 million a week just to sort out the mess we're in.

At least we get to choose where we spend our money, yay!

Oh well, I've done my complaining. I'll just deal with it, get my degree sorted, then f*ck off out of here. Canada is very nice apparently.