The EU - Leave or Remain?

[Keithrm]

Lot's of emphasis on economic forecasting ranging from doom and gloom to utopia, personally i believe we will do fine outside the EU but I just love this quote:-

The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.

[Gareth]

it rather amuses me that people who are older are saying their opinion should be treated with equal respect to the opinion of young people [...] I'm going to remind people of the discussion we had a few months previously where it was reasonably argued by me that a young person can have far more experience of the world than older people, simply because of the life experiences they've been through.

My niece, almost thirteen and a half, thinks it's completely unfair that she's not allowed to vote. She makes the same point as you, that she is quite experienced enough of life, and thinks that she has at least as much relevant experience as old people, that is, those over the age of twenty five.

I suggested that only those who have managed to support themselves for at least three years should be allowed to vote, parents' or government largess not counted.

[TheInsanity1234]

If only we had any power to do that - we have a single vote so can be outgunned by the French and Germans (or indeed a couple of the recent accession states).

Simply because the nation can't be arsed to get off their rears and actually complain about things and get them done. It's always the pessimists that hold us back.

It may be worth reading http://hurryupharry.org/2016/06/20/why- ... n-johnson/ depending on your view of propaganda.

Very good points raised in that.

But those old people have seen quite a lot and will hopefully be there to stop the 18 year olds who know everything already (and haven't started to forget stuff) from ballsing the whole thing up in the first place.

Hence why I wouldn't block the older people from voting, as I think a fair democracy allows everybody to have their say, and is one of my problems with the EU. It's not a fair democracy, but it'll be easier to change it by actually getting the nation to pull together whilst we're inside the EU rather than leaving then ending up being subject to the same rules just so we can continue our trade with the EU members.

Experienced of what though? Spending 3 months (I guess) per nation isn't experience, it's just backpacking. And spending time in Thailand is hardly the sort of experience you might want in terms of having an opinion on democracy.

Experienced of local customs, different cultures and indeed, various different countries' take on "democracy". And yeah, perhaps just 3 months won't give you a full knowledge of all the nuances of the political systems in the country, but it will be plenty of time to offer you the general picture.

At what age would you propose to introduce this compulsory disenfranchisement? 70, 60, 50 ...?

Various deprecated regimes have tried such things based on race, religion, colour of skin etc. in the past. Generally they're not perceived as particularly desirable in today's more democratic times

I wouldn't propose to introduce anything like that, because I'm not stupid enough to think it'd be a fair democracy if we blocked people from being able to vote. I dislike the fact people are allowed to offer opinions which are probably irrelevant, but it would be completely unfair to block them from offering an opinion, and if we were going to do that, we may as well become a dictatorship.

You despise it, yet you want to remain part of it. That's just perverse.

Please view this video for a summary of my thoughts of the EU.

Surely if you despise it then the sensible thing to do is leave it. Many EU insiders, with far more knowledge of EU internals than anyone here, have stated openly that the institution is unreformable, and you're not going to change it with one vote anyway.

You seem to forget the power of mass union and action. If we all rally together and take enough action, we can change anything. I'd often wondered how quickly changes would take place if we were to have all the passion of football supporters channeled towards changing the EU.

I presume that if we were not already a member you would not wish to join it? Why would you if you despise it? So, if you wouldn't join it, then why not just leave it?

I don't want to leave the EU because I see no perceivable benefit to leaving. I've spoken to lots of different people, I've done a lot of research, I've asked all the questions I needed to ask, and not one source has offered me any information that removes all doubt regarding our future if we leave the EU. The only information I can get seems to be regarding our current immigration "problems" which I suspect will remain a "problem" after we leave due to needing to accept free movement if we want any trade deals, but unfortunately with any trade deal, we'll have to accept all the rules but we don't get a say in any of them, so leaving the EU will result in us spending the same amount of money to be a part of the EU, but considerably less say in what rules we're subject to.

My niece, almost thirteen and a half, thinks it's completely unfair that she's not allowed to vote. She makes the same point as you, that she is quite experienced enough of life, and thinks that she has at least as much relevant experience as old people, that is, those over the age of twenty five.

I suggested that only those who have managed to support themselves for at least three years should be allowed to vote, parents' or government largess not counted.

It is unfair, because if they're old enough to do the research and form a reasonably justifiable opinion of their own, they should be allowed to have a say in things. I appreciate that children of 13 and a half may be very easily swayed by propaganda as they most likely lack the required skills to do their own research, and access to such equipment that allows them to do their research.
But if they're mature enough to hold justifiable opinions, they're mature enough to have an influence in political matters.
The same is true if you're over 25. If you're far too immature to form your own justifiable opinions, you shouldn't be allowed to vote. In that sense, I know quite a few people in their 30's who have successfully supported themselves for years but are voting leave or remain just because they're very easily swayed by the nonsense the tabloid of their choice churn out.
But at the end of the day, democracy allows everyone to have their say, and I would be no better than the older people I've encountered who think I shouldn't be allowed to vote because I'm too young to do so, if I were to try and stop people from having their say.

Oh by the way, I've been reading through a bit of legal documents, and have discovered that all member states have a legal right to withdraw their membership of the European Union at any time, so this isn't an one off decision. (Please refer to Article 50 in the Official Journal of the EU, here)

Hell, we could hold a referendum every two years if we so wished.

But yeah, so we will always have the ability to threaten withdrawal from the EU if we decide we dislike it enough.
So Akirk, you need not worry about the UK having lost its ability to use the threat of withdrawal as part of its negotiations.

[Strangely Brown]

Oh dear... Really, I don't know where to begin. Idealistic 18 year olds. You gotta love 'em. I'll echo the earlier suggestion that you should snapshot this thread and then come back and read it in 30 years.

[Mr Cholmondeley-Warner]

(Some of) The things you're ignoring are:

- The UK has always been a bit "different" to mainland Europe, hence why we've been at war with one or other part of it for the last several hundred years. In the latest incarnation, they're all allied against us.
- The UK has 78 MEPs in a Parliament of 751 (max), so easily outvoted on most issues by any one of France, Germany or Italy, or any combination of them and some smaller powers. So the "mass union and action" will only work if all of our MEPs were to vote together, and then only if we had some very powerful allies. If the rest of Europe decides not to allow us to change our terms, then they won't get changed. Like other states, we have one member in the European Commission, who, like the others, is under oath not to represent UK interest before European interest. This link makes interesting reading, if you're still believing you can change things by "mass action". About the most powerful instance of "mass action" we have is today's referendum, something not given to us all that often.
- The UK is not in the Euro, and is therefore exempt from some of the turbulence it has caused, but that in itself, makes us a target for their distrust, dislike and lack of understanding.

When you go backpacking (which I guess you haven't done yet, right?) I suspect your main priorities will be having a good time, getting drunk, doing casual work to fund the next bit of backpacking, and finding sexual partners among the youth of the country you're visiting, or other ex-pats. I doubt you'll be spending much time absorbing the history and culture of the various places you visit, unless you're fundamentally different from other young tourists.

Of course everyone believes they're "mature" enough to have a say in the way things are run, but coincidentally, most countries have standardised voting age at around the end of puberty, once hormonal changes have settled down a bit, and most people will have had the benefit of some secondary education, to counteract them just believing everything they see on TV or Facebook.

[akirk]

My niece, almost thirteen and a half, thinks it's completely unfair that she's not allowed to vote. She makes the same point as you, that she is quite experienced enough of life, and thinks that she has at least as much relevant experience as old people, that is, those over the age of twenty five.

I suggested that only those who have managed to support themselves for at least three years should be allowed to vote, parents' or government largess not counted.

It is unfair, because if they're old enough to do the research and form a reasonably justifiable opinion of their own, they should be allowed to have a say in things. I appreciate that children of 13 and a half may be very easily swayed by propaganda as they most likely lack the required skills to do their own research, and access to such equipment that allows them to do their research.
But if they're mature enough to hold justifiable opinions, they're mature enough to have an influence in political matters.

and the point is that a child of 13 and a half is still considered a child because they are they are not grown up and it is very unusual for them to be sufficiently mature to make decisions of this nature - put a bunch of girls this age together for a sleep-over and their discussion will be: soft toy for bedtime, make-up, boys, bands & music, tv, fashion, magazines etc. - it is unlikely to be politics, immigration, finance, treaties, cross-border crime, etc.

one of the best ways I know to describe how children mature into adults (i.e. through the teenage years) is that they grow up from the outside in - think in layers... they give a grown up appearance from the outside initially, but are still children inside - and gradually they mature until they are adults - but giving an external appearance doesn't = maturity, the child is still there often to a much older age than you might think...

there is a very good reason why there are legal ages for various things and it is to do with maturity - yes, the rare odd child will be mature early, in the same way that the rare odd child will not be mature at a later date, but in general people mature as they age...

There is no way in which it would be sensible for 13.5 year olds to be voting...

So Akirk, you need not worry about the UK having lost its ability to use the threat of withdrawal as part of its negotiations.

I think that is too superficial a view - whatever could happen - the psychology will change, if the British public vote to remain then the politicians at that point no longer have a mandate to withdraw - and the other EU politicians will know that - basic politics - it will remove the power of any threat to exit...

Alasdair

[Horse]

The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.

"Like trying to drive forwards by only looking in the rear view mirror"

And weather forecasting is 'horoscopes with numbers'

[TheInsanity1234]

(Some of) The things you're ignoring are:

- The UK has always been a bit "different" to mainland Europe, hence why we've been at war with one or other part of it for the last several hundred years. In the latest incarnation, they're all allied against us.
- The UK has 78 MEPs in a Parliament of 751 (max), so easily outvoted on most issues by any one of France, Germany or Italy, or any combination of them and some smaller powers. So the "mass union and action" will only work if all of our MEPs were to vote together, and then only if we had some very powerful allies. If the rest of Europe decides not to allow us to change our terms, then they won't get changed. Like other states, we have one member in the European Commission, who, like the others, is under oath not to represent UK interest before European interest. This link makes interesting reading, if you're still believing you can change things by "mass action". About the most powerful instance of "mass action" we have is today's referendum, something not given to us all that often.
- The UK is not in the Euro, and is therefore exempt from some of the turbulence it has caused, but that in itself, makes us a target for their distrust, dislike and lack of understanding.

- Very good point. I prefer the general European culture to England's culture, there's far too much nonsense and bullshit that seems to come from being English. Although having said that, I probably would protest any erosion of English culture as I'd probably miss it if it was gone.
- I wasn't talking about politicians in power, I mean the average Joe actually take an active part in politics and getting out there and getting stuck in to organised protests etc. Of course though, 99% of middle class people wouldn't have the time or the inclination to complain about their lot, so as long everything's okay for them, everything's fine.
- Hardly our fault that we've done the sensible thing and not converted to the Euro.

When you go backpacking (which I guess you haven't done yet, right?) I suspect your main priorities will be having a good time, getting drunk, doing casual work to fund the next bit of backpacking, and finding sexual partners among the youth of the country you're visiting, or other ex-pats. I doubt you'll be spending much time absorbing the history and culture of the various places you visit, unless you're fundamentally different from other young tourists.

I don't actually intend on going 'backpacking'.
I'm too busy trying to make sure I get a decent education here so I can go to university in order to get a job paying a liveable wage and get a decent house in the job market and housing market that the baby boomers have destroyed.
But of course, I'm just another problematic millennial and I just need to get off my arse and start working

Of course everyone believes they're "mature" enough to have a say in the way things are run, but coincidentally, most countries have standardised voting age at around the end of puberty, once hormonal changes have settled down a bit, and most people will have had the benefit of some secondary education, to counteract them just believing everything they see on TV or Facebook.

I know that, and I appreciate why there's a voting age limit, and I will happily accept it. I was merely just pointing out that actually, being sensible enough to do things like that isn't really a thing that comes with age. It's a thing that comes with education, meaning actually, people below 18 could very well be more mature and educated than people over 18.

But whatever, as far as I can work out, I'm just another disrespectful idealistic teenager who needs to "buck up his ideas and pull his socks up and a bout of army work should do him good".

It's hardly my fault I'm not a pessimistic old git. I wasn't raised that way.

and the point is that a child of 13 and a half is still considered a child because they are they are not grown up and it is very unusual for them to be sufficiently mature to make decisions of this nature - put a bunch of girls this age together for a sleep-over and their discussion will be: soft toy for bedtime, make-up, boys, bands & music, tv, fashion, magazines etc. - it is unlikely to be politics, immigration, finance, treaties, cross-border crime, etc.

one of the best ways I know to describe how children mature into adults (i.e. through the teenage years) is that they grow up from the outside in - think in layers... they give a grown up appearance from the outside initially, but are still children inside - and gradually they mature until they are adults - but giving an external appearance doesn't = maturity, the child is still there often to a much older age than you might think...

there is a very good reason why there are legal ages for various things and it is to do with maturity - yes, the rare odd child will be mature early, in the same way that the rare odd child will not be mature at a later date, but in general people mature as they age...

There is no way in which it would be sensible for 13.5 year olds to be voting...

As above, I can see why there's an arbitrary age limit and can accept it. I was merely highlighting that these traits aren't really to do with your age, but the education you've received. Treat a child like an adult, capable of its own decisions, and it shall do just that.

That's the exact way I was brought up by my parents, I was treated like I was mature enough to make decisions by myself, and it's why I'm the sort of person who joins an advanced driving forum before they're even old enough to drive because I'd like to be a safe driver before I've even passed my test.

So Akirk, you need not worry about the UK having lost its ability to use the threat of withdrawal as part of its negotiations.

I think that is too superficial a view - whatever could happen - the psychology will change, if the British public vote to remain then the politicians at that point no longer have a mandate to withdraw - and the other EU politicians will know that - basic politics - it will remove the power of any threat to exit...

Alasdair

Only until the next general election. Different party in power, different MPs, and different ideas. I feel I would've been more willing to vote out if it wasn't the Tory party in charge.

[akirk]

and the point is that a child of 13 and a half is still considered a child because they are they are not grown up and it is very unusual for them to be sufficiently mature to make decisions of this nature - put a bunch of girls this age together for a sleep-over and their discussion will be: soft toy for bedtime, make-up, boys, bands & music, tv, fashion, magazines etc. - it is unlikely to be politics, immigration, finance, treaties, cross-border crime, etc.

one of the best ways I know to describe how children mature into adults (i.e. through the teenage years) is that they grow up from the outside in - think in layers... they give a grown up appearance from the outside initially, but are still children inside - and gradually they mature until they are adults - but giving an external appearance doesn't = maturity, the child is still there often to a much older age than you might think...

there is a very good reason why there are legal ages for various things and it is to do with maturity - yes, the rare odd child will be mature early, in the same way that the rare odd child will not be mature at a later date, but in general people mature as they age...

There is no way in which it would be sensible for 13.5 year olds to be voting...

As above, I can see why there's an arbitrary age limit and can accept it. I was merely highlighting that these traits aren't really to do with your age, but the education you've received. Treat a child like an adult, capable of its own decisions, and it shall do just that.

That's the exact way I was brought up by my parents, I was treated like I was mature enough to make decisions by myself, and it's why I'm the sort of person who joins an advanced driving forum before they're even old enough to drive because I'd like to be a safe driver before I've even passed my test.

That is not totally true - there is development of the brain and ability to reason logically which grows through childhood / adolesence to maturity (and which to be fair seems to decline rapidly thereafter!) So fundamentally a child is a child and does not have that ability to to make certain decisions... It doesn't matter the education you have had - you can train a younger child into a pattern of response which can emulate maturity - but that is not the same...

There are of course exceptions, but they are noticed by their rarity, not being the norm...
The fact that you are the only one of your age group on an advanced forum merely highlights that fact - it doesn't support a general pattern of youth able to take that level of responsibility... - esp. not a number of years older, there is a big difference between a 13.5 year old and a 16 / 17 / 18 year old.

Alasdair

[Mr Cholmondeley-Warner]

- I wasn't talking about politicians in power, I mean the average Joe actually take an active part in politics and getting out there and getting stuck in to organised protests etc. Of course though, 99% of middle class people wouldn't have the time or the inclination to complain about their lot, so as long everything's okay for them, everything's fine.

Johnny Public can jump up and down and protest to his heart's content, but the EU can just ignore him and carry on as normal. The only thing protests would do would be to destabilise the local government, while having absolutely no effect on the EU whatsoever. See my original point. We are not represented in Europe to an extent that allows us to do anything unless other European countries join us in voting for whatever it is.

I'm too busy trying to make sure I get a decent education here so I can go to university in order to get a job paying a liveable wage and get a decent house in the job market and housing market that the baby boomers have destroyed.

The housing market is at an all time high. Demand far outstrips supply.

But of course, I'm just another problematic millennial and I just need to get off my arse and start working

That'll soon turn you bitter and cynical

As above, I can see why there's an arbitrary age limit and can accept it. I was merely highlighting that these traits aren't really to do with your age, but the education you've received. Treat a child like an adult, capable of its own decisions, and it shall do just that.

Er, no. Education requires the brain to develop at a pace sufficient to absorb it. There have been child prodigies, but they've seldom been happy, well-adjusted people. Experience shows actually it's better not to force-feed children too fast.

Only until the next general election. Different party in power, different MPs, and different ideas. I feel I would've been more willing to vote out if it wasn't the Tory party in charge.

Oh, you trust the other major party more, do you? They're all politicians, sadly. Whether we will get another referendum in my lifetime, I doubt very much.